Euro 2012: Predicting the Entire Field from Start to Finish

The 2012 European Championships kick-off next week, marking the official start of a summer that—between this and the Olympics—will be ripe with patriotic flag-waving and international competition.

The quadrennial Euros are widely considered the second-biggest international soccer tournament in the world, after the World Cup. South American juggernauts like Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina don't get to participate, but don't let that fool you into thinking the tournament is maladroit.

In fact, between the remarkable depth on the European continent, and the smaller field size (four groups rather than eight), this tournament's field is actually far denser with talent than the World Cup field is. If you exclude the two automatically-qualifying host nations, Poland and Ukraine, only one team in the tournament ranks outside the world's top-20 teams (26th-ranked Czech Republic).

Beginning next week, the stars will be out in full-force, providing the perfect appetizer for the Olympics; only it's at one of those places where the appetizers are actually a little bit better than the main course.

And between this, next summer's Confederations Cup (the third-biggest international tournament in the world), and the 2014 World Cup, we won't have to go a full year without (men's) international soccer again until 2015!

Here's a preview of the groups, and some predictions as to how the whole thing might shake out.

Group A:

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Russia (Fifa Ranking: 11)

2. Greece (Fifa Ranking: 14)

3. Czech Republic (Fifa Ranking: 26)

4. Poland (Fifa Ranking: 65)

Group MVP: Andrei Arshavin (RUS)

While Group A may lack the flash and panache of some of the other groups, they make up for it with grittiness and physicality. Granted, this is still the weakest group in the field, their stinginess is a common thread that binds them all together, and gives them a collective identity.

This blue-collar group will probably see a dogfight at the top between Russia, Greece and the Czech Republic. Expect to see some low scoring games, some questionable tackles, and a whole lot of yellow and red.

Russia allowed only four goals in ten qualifying games, en route to winning their group outright. Their defense, along with the group's best player, Andrei Arshavin, make them a good bet to advance at the top.

Greece and the Czechs should be locked in a battle for the remaining spot. Greece famously shocked the continent by winning Euro 2004, so they're no stranger to this massive stage. They won their qualifying group over a good Croatia team, while the Czechs needed the play-off (and a favorable draw against Montenegro) to make the field.

If the top three teams beat up on each other, there's a chance this could come down to goal differential. That makes the games against Poland—ranked 65th in the world, behind the likes of Sierra Leone—crucial, as the top three teams will look to attack, even toward the end of sure-fire victories. The Polish are by far the weakest squad in the field.

Group B:

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Germany (Fifa Ranking: 2)

2. Portugal (Fifa Ranking: 5)

3. Netherlands (Fifa Ranking: 4)

4. Denmark (Fifa Ranking: 10)

Group MVP: Cristiano Ronaldo (POR)

The dreaded Group of Death. Your heart has to go out to the Portuguese, who also found themselves with the toughest group draw in the 2010 World Cup. But despite being grouped with Brazil and the Ivory Coast, they found a way to survive and advance.

If we're going solely on how the teams looked in qualification, Germany and Netherlands would be the easy choices here, though.

The Germans were downright dominant in qualification, going 10-0. Out of all the perennial superpowers, they had the easiest qualification group (serves them right getting stuck in the Group of Death), but their +27 goal differential is intimidating nonetheless.

It may seem blasphemous to leave the defending World Cup runner-up out of the knockout round, but somebody has to fall victim to Group B. After their resounding success in the World Cup, the Dutch have less to prove to their fan-base than the Germans and the Portuguese do.

That might not be enough to indict them, but that's not what I'm doing; I wouldn't be incredulous at all if they went on to win the whole thing. Problem is I feel the same way about Germany and Portugal, too.

Make sure not to sleep on Denmark, either. They were plagued with a brutal draw, but they own a top-ten world ranking for a reason. They were in the same qualifying group as Portugal and actually finished ahead of them, tallying 19 points to their 16. Were they in Group A, they'd be projected ahead of Russia.

Group C:

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Spain (Fifa Ranking: 1)

2. Croatia (Fifa Ranking: 8)

3. Republic of Ireland (Fifa Ranking: 18)

4. Italy (Fifa Ranking: 12)

Group MVP: Xavi (ESP)

After Spain, the rest of this group is very evenly matched. Any one of them could finish second, third, or fourth without anyone batting an eyelash.

What we do know -- or, let's be safe and say assume -- is that in spite of a relatively tough draw, Spain should be fine. The world's top team is back to defend their 2008 Euro title, and they look just as strong as ever, having finished undefeated in qualifying.

After that, things get a little messy. The Croatians are loaded in the midfield and up front, and also play beautifully with one another, which gives them the slight edge.

Italy certainly has the talent to compete with anybody, but they've played very sloppy in the past few years, looking more like an amalgamation of ego-centric players than a genuine team. Their 1-0 loss to a work-in-progress USA squad a couple of months ago was a perfect demonstration of how ill-prepared they are.

Ireland could be the wild card here. They make their return to top-flight international competition after Thierry Henry's handball kept them out of the World Cup. You have to believe their blood is boiling after watching the French not only purloin their spot on the world's biggest stage, but then go on to embarrass themselves with the undeserved opportunity. 

The Irish have a lot of pride as a nation, and always have a pretty good squad to boot. They could easily beat out Italy and give Croatia a good run for second.

Group D:

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Sweden (Fifa Ranking: 17)

2. England (Fifa Ranking: 7)

3. France (Fifa Ranking: 16)

4. Ukraine (Fifa Ranking: 50)

Group MVP: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (SWE)

Neither the Francs nor the English did much to really distinguish themselves en route to winning their qualifying groups.

France was unable to beat Belarus is two tries (losing once and drawing once), and also played to a draw with Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina (whom they only beat out by one point to qualify).

England, meanwhile, drew three times in eight games––twice to Montenegro and once to Switzerland.

The most impressive qualifier in Group D was actually the only one that came in second in their qualifying group: Sweden. The Swedes finished in a close second place behind Netherlands, and earned an automatic bid by being the group runner-up with the highest number of points. They lost 4-1 the first time they played the Dutch, but showed astounding resilience by coming back and beating them 3-2 in their second meeting.

While England and France are both certainly threats to advance over the Swedes, recent form suggests that they will actually be battling each other for one spot. The English seem the wiser choice because of (1) slightly superior talent and (2) their desire to drum up some patriotism in anticipation of the 2012 London Olympics.

England and France have recently been perpetual disappointments in International play, so it'll be interesting to see them go up against each other.

Quarterfinals:

(1) Russia vs. Portugal

A very interesting battle, as the attack-minded Portuguese take on the defense-oriented Russians. This diametrical clash of styles should be an interesting one to watch.

Russia made a surprising run past the quarterfinals in Euro 2008, besting Netherlands 3-1 before falling to eventual-champion Spain in the semis. Could they be in for a repeat performance?

I'm gonna say no. Ronaldo was in rare form for Madrid this year, and if even 80% of that form carries over to Portugal—whose attack is a very reasonable facsimile of what he has on his club team—the Russians are in serious trouble.

Winner: Portugal

(2) Spain vs. England

What a matchup of heavyweights this would be. Rooney would be playing for revenge on the Spaniards, whose roster is heavily inundated with the same FC Barcelona players that beat his Manchester United side in the Champions League Final last year.

The British are one of the few squads that have the firepower, and defensive presence to upend the Spaniards. I can assure you Spain would rather see England win the group, and play either Sweden or France in the next round.

But while this is sure to be closer than Spain would like, they should be able to avoid going down this early. Too many weapons. Too many defenders. Too much Casillas.

Winner: Spain

(3) Germany vs. Greece

The Greeks would probably tighten into a defensive shell, hold as much possession as they could, hope to keep Germany off the board for as long as possible, and try to steal a goal off a counter-attack or a set-piece.

Not a bad strategy. But also not enough to cut it.

The Germans have too much offensive firepower, and are accustomed to inferior opponents trying a myriad of tactics to keep them off the board. They're too organized.

Crazier things have happened with Greece in this tournament, but it's hard to foresee them happening again.

Winner: Germany

(4) Sweden vs. Croatia

A very good matchup between two very underrated international sides. Sweden beat Croatia 3-1 in a friendly back in February, but the actual Euros are a completely different monster.

Sweden probably looked better during qualifying, but Croatia almost certainly has the better roster.

When in doubt, go with the more talented team. Especially when that team doesn't have any discernible weaknesses to neutralize that talent.

Winner: Croatia

Semifinals:

(1) Portugal vs. Spain

The Spanish once again find themselves against one of the few teams that can match them body-for-body in offensive talent. 

And like England, Portugal's superstars have a bone to pick with Spain's Barcelona-infused roster. Nani was part of Rooney's Manchester United team that lost to Barca last year, while Ronaldo knows the guys well from Madrid's seemingly-infinite annual matchups against Barcelona.

But reverence can only get you so far. And while Portugal can match Spain's attacking prowess, they can't compete with the world champs on the back end.

That will ultimately be their undoing.

Winner: Spain

(2) Germany vs. Croatia

If the seeding were to play out exactly as predicted here -- the odds of which are admittedly microscopic -- Germany would have a far easier path to the final than Spain would.

Yes, they've got that whole Group of Death thing to worry about, but getting Greece and Croatia in the knockout round, while Spain gets England and Portugal? That doesn't quite seem right.

That's not to say that Croatia is gonna roll over and die for anybody. The Croatians are equal parts talented and proud. They would make this game a dogfight, and get a few good looks in the process.

But the Germans are a systematic machine. Their players are automatons; they each have a specific role and they each perform it to perfection. The buck stops here for Croatia.

Winner: Germany

Championship:

Spain vs. Germany

A rematch of the Euro 2008 championship game. An epic battle between the top two ranked teams in the world.

Wait, does this make me a front-runner?

While the rest of this bracket isn't particularly "chalk," Spain and Germany are the two best sides in this field, and they're playing their best soccer at the right time. It's hard to envision either of them losing to any other squad.

This game would be mandatory viewing. Must-see television. There would be far more talent on the field than there was in the Chelsea–Bayern Champions League Final. And what's more, they'd be playing for national pride, rather than contracts. For fidelity rather than avarice.

Who would win? Whichever side has the ball bounce right on that given day, I guess. I'll go with the Germans to de-throne the reigning champs in a bout of vengeance. 

Champion: Germany