Guardian writers' predicted position: 18th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Doyle's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 12th
Odds to win the league: 5000-1
Through computer jiggery pokery, wishful thinking or desperate mischief-making, Ipswich Town's official website this week included a photo of Grant Holt among the club's first-team playing squad. A minor palaver ensued, prolonged as much as possible by the sort of internet crusaders who devote their lives to prolonging minor palavers. But most Norfolkers were unmoved or just amused by the mishap, secure in the knowledge that Holt, after threatening to fly the Canaries' coup, had already signed up to spend whatever remains of his prime at Carrow Road. Paul Lambert, as we know, did not. And Norwich's standing this season will to a large extent be determined by which proves more influential: Lambert going or Holt staying.
The first obvious consequence of Lambert going was Chris Hughton arriving. Norwich did not dither in making that appointment and you can see why they acted so quickly to entice Hughton. He has huge experience of the Premier League as a player and coach and in his relatively short managerial career has played difficult hands adroitly. When he took charge of Newcastle and Birmingham both clubs were in the sort of pungent messes in which players would not have had to look hard for excuses to underperform – in that sense this Norwich side are slightly similar, having lost the leader who guided them against the odds from League One to the Premier League.
Rather than allow his previous clubs to sink as many expected, Hughton convinced the players of Newcastle and Birmingham to rally and excel. And he did so without spending much money, a factor that must have endeared him further to the Norwich board, who are determined to stay in the Premier League but not necessarily able or willing to spend standard Premier League fees, which is one of the reasons Lambert left (though whether he was wise to go to Aston Villa remains to be seen).
Some fans fear Hughton's style of football will be more conservative than Lambert's. It is true that he has tended to stick to a flat 4-4-2 or a 4-5-1 during most of his managerial career, whereas Lambert, while also using those systems frequently, has generally shown greater flexibility, never hesitating to switch systems or personnel between or within games: that, along with the Scot's motivational powers, were the main reasons why Norwich were able suddenly to spring surprises last season every time a bad run looked like embedding them in a rut. This was even true towards the end of their maiden campaign, when inspiration dwindled and mistakes began to proliferate, as they managed to pull themselves sufficiently together to beat other teams who were enduring difficult spells, deservedly toppling Tottenham and Aston Villa. They will have to produce similar exploits to survive this season, as most of the teams who finished below them last term have strengthened significantly and the three promoted clubs have at least as much resources.
The evidence of pre-season matches suggests Hughton has made improving Norwich's defending his priority and he has been rewarded with four clean sheets from six games of low to moderate difficulty.
He has rescued Steven Whittaker from the wreckage of Rangers to fill the right-back berth vacated by Kyle Naughton, and signed Michael Turner to bolster the centre of defence. You get the feeling that it will take either ingenious coaching or even more recruits to increase the solidity of a defence that was often stretched perilously close to breaking point last season, when no one outside the relegated trio allowed more shots or conceded more goals than Norwich, who were saved either by John Ruddy (who made more stops last season than anyone but Wolves's Wayne Hennessey), last-ditch clearances (only two teams made more clearances off the line than Norwich) or fractionally imperfect finishing (Norwich's goal-frame was struck 26 times, more than any other team). Such escapes seldom prove sustainable. So Norwich need to stop giving opponents so many opportunities to score.
And, of course, Norwich need to continue scoring, which is why holding on to Holt was so important. Holt may be 31 but his menace seems undimmed and he can be expected to enjoy at least one more season tormenting top-flight opponents, and another haul of 15 goals may not be beyond reach. The more limited Steve Morison may, on the other hand, struggle to repeat his tally of nine, so Norwich, not having signed another striker so far, will hope that the fit-again James Vaughan can fulfil the potential he showed before injury interrupted his career.
Norwich can also expect to continue enjoying useful contributions from a midfield that has more creativity than it is often given credit for. Jonny Howson looks set for an influential campaign after making an artful impression since joining last January and a more recent recruit from Leeds, Robert Snodgrass, could have a similar impact. Factor in Wes Hoolahan and it is clear that Hughton has decent options in central midfield, while Elliot Bennett and, in particular, Anthony Pilkington could continue to cause trouble out wide.
In the Premier League era, 28% of teams who have survived the season after being promoted to the top flight went down to the very next season – hence the storied Second Season Syndrome – the reasonable height of Norwich's ambition this term is to avoid adding to that casualty list. Just.