3 Changes Joachim Low Should Consider as Germany Face Poland

Germany face Poland in their second match of the group stages at Euro 2016 in the Stade de France on Thursday. Seeing as both teams won their opening games against Ukraine and Northern Ireland, respectively, the matchup could already decide the winner of Group C.

If recent history is anything to go by, it's going to be a close contest. The two teams have met three times in the last two years, with one win for each side in the qualifiers and a draw in the warm-up for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Germany won their qualification group with just one point of advantage over Poland, who outscored the world champions by a whopping nine goals in 10 matches.

The eastern Europeans' victory over Northern Ireland was arguably every bit as impressive as Germany's over Ukraine, although it was hard work to break down a fairly defensive-minded opponent whose main focus seemingly was to not allow the imperious Robert Lewandowski to score.

Germany allowed more chances in their match, failing to really control the game especially in the first half. Miguel Delaney wrote for ESPN FC: 

Germany were supreme for the first 20 minutes and really moved the ball about slickly. It led to the foul on Thomas Muller and a typically brilliant delivery from Toni Kroos that [Shkodran] Mustafi met with such emphatic power. Once they got that, though, a complacency that has been seen right through qualifying set in, and they were the inferior side until half-time.

Ukraine failed to take advantage of that complacency, but Germany shouldn't expect Poland to do the same. They have a "balanced and deadly strike partnership" in Lewandowski and the roaming Arkadiusz Milik, scorer of the winner against Northern Ireland, as Peter McVitie pointed out for Goal.com.

With Grzegorz Krychowiak masterfully shielding the back line, Poland could prove more difficult to create chances against than Ukraine. With their opponents on Thursday brimming with confidence after their surprisingly strong qualifying campaign and the solid win over Northern Ireland, Germany will have to improve on their first showing in France.

In order to do so, head coach Joachim Low ought to look at making an alteration or two to his squad. The 56-year-old has been reluctant to tinker with his squad in tournaments, adhering to the philosophy that one should never change a winning team. Remarkably, he's never made even a single change from the first match in a major tournament to the second.

Results in those second matches have been mixed at best, with Germany losing 2-1 to Croatia at Euro 2008, 1-0 to Serbia in the 2010 World Cup, a 2-1 win over the Netherlands in 2012 and 2-2 draw with Ghana in Brazil two years ago.

With that in mind, here are three changes Low should consider as Germany prepare to face Poland.

Mats Hummels for Shkodran Mustafi

Let's start with the obvious possibility. Mats Hummels is a regular starter for Germany, forming an impressive partnership with Jerome Boateng at centre-back that was a big part of the team's success in Brazil. Had Borussia Dortmund's team captain not suffered a muscle injury in his final game for the club in the DFB-Pokal final against former and future employer Bayern Munich, Hummels would have started against Ukraine.

As it was, however, Valencia's Mustafi got the nod and did fairly well. Scoring the first and intercepting the ball to start the move that led to Bastian Schweinsteiger's goal, he had a hand in the win. However, the entire defence apart from Boateng didn't exactly look rock-solid against Ukraine.

"A lot of attacks were cleared with a rushed anxiety rather than the assurance they should have been, and it reflected how the defence looked somewhat ill-fitting," Delaney wrote.

Mustafi himself lamented "that Germany had allowed the game to be 'very open, like an English game' before half-time," per Raphael Honigstein for ESPN FC.

It seems like a given that Hummels will return to the starting XI, health permitting. That's a question mark at this point, however. The 27-year-old hasn't played since May 21 and only returned to team training the day before the Ukraine match.

Playing Hummels could be too big a risk for Low, especially given the opposition they face. Lewandowski, arguably the best striker at Euro 2016, is a handful even for defenders in the best shape, and Milik's movement makes him an awkward matchup as well.

Mustafi's aggressive style of defending could be a good fit for that striking duo. Then again, one has to remember Low didn't plan on the 24-year-old replacing Hummels against Ukraine. Rather, he was forced into the decision when Antonio Rudiger tore his anterior cruciate ligament.

Joshua Kimmich for Benedikt Howedes

Schalke's Benedikt Howedes was arguably Germany's weakest link in defence against Ukraine, struggling with Yevhen Konoplyanka from his spot at right-back. "The Sevilla winger exposed Howedes again and again, making him look cumbersome," Jonathan Wilson wrote for Sports Illustrated.

While some of his woes were down to the lack of defensive help from Thomas Muller in front of him, Howedes' lack of agility showed against the effervescent Konoplyanka. It seems almost unfair to criticise the 28-year-old, who, coming off a difficult campaign riddled with injuries, played in a somewhat unfamiliar spot at the service of his team.

With another difficult matchup looming large, however, Low should tap into his options. Nineteen-year-old Bartosz Kapustka was one of the revelations of the first round of matches in France, as Bleacher Report's Sam Tighe highlighted in this video:

Germany don't have a true right-back in their squad, but Joshua Kimmich seems the logical solution against Poland. Despite only playing one full game at that position for Bayern Munich this season—against Hertha Berlin in April, per Transfermarkt.co.uk—the versatile 21-year-old has the required skill set to be of great value to Germany.

His agility and aggression should work well against Kapustka, while he's got the technical and passing skills to contribute to the attack more than Howedes managed against Ukraine. The following graphic shows how high up the pitch Germany involved the natural centre-back in their moves:

Kimmich looks far better suited for that role than Howedes, and the risk of playing a 21-year-old in only his second international cap seems negligible: Despite their below-average results in second matches at tournaments under Low, Germany has always made the final four.

Mario Gomez for Mario Gotze

"The scrutiny on Mario Gotze is bound to increase," Honigstein wrote after the Ukraine match. "The Bayern Munich midfielder's game as a false nine was unconvincing, as was Muller's deployment on the right. The duo could swap positions for the Poland match, though Gotze might also be sacrificed altogether in favour of Mario Gomez."

The latter option seems to make the most sense given the way Germany played in their opener against Ukraine. Gotze was cut off from his team's service for large parts of the game, with a surprising amount of rather pointless crosses flying into the area especially in the first half.

Most dangerous situations came when midfielders made runs into the attacking zones, be it Julian Draxler cutting in from the left or Sami Khedira charging forward. Gotze only had eight touches in the first half, according to German broadcaster ARD, and he ended up without being involved in a single real scoring opportunity.

A clinical finisher in every team he's played for over the last decade, Gomez is far more comfortable with being invisible for stretches of a game, as long as he gets that one chance he usually buries with conviction. 

Lars Pollmann is a featured columnist who also writes for YellowWallPod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.