Premier League 2016-17 season preview No20: West Ham United

Guardian writers’ predicted position 7th (NB: this is not necessarily Jacob Steinberg’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position 7th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker) 80-1

The day before that emotional farewell against Manchester United, one of West Ham United’s greatest players went slightly off message as he held court inside the cramped, stuffy and unloved press room at Upton Park. It is worth listening when Sir Trevor Brooking speaks about a subject that is so close to his heart and the scorer of West Ham’s winner in the 1980 FA Cup final struck a cautious tone while discussing the challenges of leaving behind 112 years of history to move to a new stadium.

By the time of the move, Upton Park had changed a lot from Brooking’s days and there is a temptation to romanticise it. No one will miss the queue for the tube after games, the facilities were dated, the ground became lopsided after the new west stand went up in 2001 and, let’s face it, the atmosphere could be rotten, especially when the team played badly.

But it was a proper football stadium, tight and hostile at its best, a reality that was hammered home when West Ham beat United there in May. Green Street was gritty and authentic; it smelled of cigarettes, fried onions and, er, horse poo, a curiously comforting aroma for anyone who goes to football. The London Stadium – a holding name while the naming rights are finalised – is next to Westfield shopping centre.

Brooking feared visiting sides may not be as intimidated when they come to Stratford. “If I was the opposition, I used to love playing the big teams and at the big stadiums as a visiting player,” he said. “Now I think everyone will want to play well when they visit Stratford. That’s a mentality fans have got to understand and the players have got to try to quickly get two or three good wins under the belt.

“I think the evening games might be the ones where you’ll find it slightly different. The close proximity here meant it could be intimidating for the opposition. I don’t think the opposition will find it like that because it’s not as close as it had been. Having said that, I think our fans will make a lot of noise.”

Although Brooking was speaking long before a ball had been kicked inside West Ham’s new home, his points were valid, offering a player’s perspective. Yet the good news for David Sullivan, David Gold and Karren Brady is that the response to last week’s opening night has largely been positive, going by word of mouth and the reaction on social media and message forums. “It was more than I expected,” Slaven Bilic said after West Ham reached the Europa League play-offs by beating NK Domzale. “The atmosphere is loud.”

Stratford is easy to reach by public transport, the acoustics are good and the views inside the stadium have mostly gone down well, despite the distance between the stands and the pitch. With tickets priced affordably, West Ham have sold 52,000 season tickets and foresee regular crowds of 60,000 having a huge effect on their finances.

A game against the third-best side in Slovenia on a balmy August evening is not necessarily the most accurate barometer of whether West Ham have made the right choice. A pocket of mild-mannered Domzale fans sat next to the press box, high up in the gods, and Bilic has suggested it may take some time before West Ham are comfortable in their new surroundings.

There is a corporate feel in places and a large gap between the middle tier in the stand behind the dugouts, which holds the corporate boxes, and the lower tier. That may douse the atmosphere and the test will come in a big match. Converting an athletics stadium into one suitable for football is not easy and the green felt covering the running track was a reminder of West Ham’s new reality. Will it be as easy to engage with the action on the pitch? Or will it feel too remote?

The answer to those questions is likely to depend on how West Ham perform and Bilic delivered another warning after the victory over Domzale. “I have no problems saying that playing in the Europa League lowers your chances in the Premier League,” he said.

The Croatian wants to embrace the Europa League – assuming West Ham win their play-off against Astra Giurgiu, their conquerors in the third qualifying round last year – but he is aware it will have an impact on their domestic form. Having parted ways with Sam Allardyce last year, West Ham were impressive in Bilic’s debut campaign, challenging for Champions League qualification, playing attractive football and beating top sides home and away before finishing seventh.

Their work in the transfer market is far from finished and their squad depth will be placed under the microscope immediately. West Ham begin the season at Chelsea on Monday, travel to Romania for the first leg against Astra on Thursday and host Bournemouth on Sunday. Manuel Lanzini and Aaron Cresswell are injured, and Dimitri Payet, Angelo Ogbonna and James Collins have had short pre-seasons after their Euro 2016 exertions. No wonder Bilic indicated he wants five players after the Domzale match.

Given West Ham’s schedule, gauging their true level may not be possible until September. Their main aim at the start of the summer was to upgrade their options up front, bearing in mind Andy Carroll’s injury record, Enner Valencia’s inconsistency and Diafra Sakho’s attitude problems. Sakho’s proposed move to West Bromwich Albion fell through and his troubled mindset is a major source of frustration for Bilic, who rates the Senegalese forward. Although Carroll finished last season strongly, scoring a memorable hat-trick against Arsenal in April, Sakho’s pace and hold-up play makes him an ideal focal point for the brisk counterattacking style West Ham have used so effectively under Bilic.

Yet Michy Batshuayi joined Chelsea from Marseille and West Ham discovered they still have a long way to go before they become attractive to a forward as talented as Lyon’s Alexandre Lacazette, who has his sights set on a club in the Champions League. There is an insistence that money is no object but West Ham are seeking value, which is why they have been cold on the idea of signing Liverpool’s Christian Benteke. They are hopeful of ending the window with three new forwards in the squad, which would spell the end for Sakho and Valencia, and the first to arrive was Andre Ayew for a club record £20.5m from Swansea City. The 26-year-old Ghanaian scored 12 goals last season and Bilic will find his versatility useful.

On Thursday Jonathan Calleri, an Argentinian forward who spent last season on loan at São Paulo from Deportivo Maldonado, became the second to join and West Ham have not given up on Milan’s Carlos Bacca, even though they have had to be patient during negotiations with the Colombian, who fired Sevilla to the Europa League in 2015. Ashley Fletcher and Toni Martínez, young forwards signed from Manchester United and Valencia respectively, are ones for the future.

One selling point for any new striker is the chance to play with Payet, who had a wonderful first season in England, scoring 12 goals and creating 13 in all competitions. Expect him to link up beautifully with Lanzini, a lovely, nimble midfielder with an eye for goal. Signing Sofiane Feghouli on a free transfer from Valencia looks like smart business; the Algeria winger scored against Domzale.

Feghouli will face competition from Gokhan Tore, a Turkey winger who played for Bilic at Besiktas, and another candidate for a place on the right wing is Michail Antonio, who scored nine goals last season. Bilic could persist with playing the 26-year-old at right-back while he waits for Sam Byram to mature, even though Antonio was often badly exposed last season. Opposition teams will target him; Swansea were merciless when they won 4-1 at Upton Park in May. The full-back positions have been problematic. Cresswell’s knee injury heightened the need for a new left-back and although the hole has been filled after the arrival of Olympiakos’s Arthur Masuaku, the 22-year-old Frenchman will need time to settle.

West Ham look solid in midfield, with Havard Nordtveit’s arrival on a free transfer from Borussia Mönchengladbach providing competition for Mark Noble, Pedro Obiang and Cheikhou Kouyaté. The former Gladbach captain is expected to screen the back four intelligently. Yet the defence must improve. A more experienced right-back would not go amiss and there were occasional misgivings over the usually dependable Winston Reid’s form at centre-back last season. Reid’s partnership with Ogbonna in the middle remains a work in progress and the latter often looked more assured next to Collins.

While the emergence of Reece Burke and Reece Oxford meant James Tomkins was allowed to join Crystal Palace, West Ham were leaky in the final two months of the season, conceding 20 goals in 10 matches.

That record partly explains why assessing Bilic is not simple. On the surface, his first season was outstanding. West Ham finished in their best position in 14 years, achieved their highest points tally in the Premier League and ended with a positive goal difference for the first time since 1986. They took four points off Arsenal, Manchester City and United, did the double over Liverpool for the first time since the 1963-64 season and beat Chelsea and Tottenham at home. One of their most complete performances came in the win over Tottenham in March, when Bilic displayed his tactical nous by surprising Mauricio Pochettino with a 3-5-2 system instead of his favoured 4-3-3.

West Ham were let down by dropping far too many points at home against the so called lesser sides. They fought back from 2-0 down on four occasions and recovered 17 points from losing positions, often relying on Adrián’s saves to keep them in games before scoring with their first serious attack. If that speaks volumes for their character, patience and ability not to panic, it also raises doubts over their initial approach.

Expectations may have to be lowered a little. In a period of change, Bilic sounds as though he will be content with finishing in the top half and for all the talk of West Ham being at the start of a beautiful journey, there could be a few bumps on the road.