X

The Great Arsenal Conundrum: 4th and Wenger or 5th and Change?

James McNicholas@@jamesmcnicholasX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistMay 13, 2017

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MAY 10: Arsene Wenger manager / head coach of Arsenal during the Premier League match between Southampton and Arsenal at St Mary's Stadium on May 10, 2017 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images)
Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

Arsenal fans find themselves on the horns of a dilemma. Against the odds, the club are mounting yet another challenge for fourth place and Champions League qualification. On the face of it, this is good news—no club can really afford to turn their nose up at the many benefits Champions League football brings.

However, in Arsenal's case, it's not quite so straightforward. There is a pervading fear that if Arsenal once again claw their way back into the top four, it will mean Arsene Wenger staying on.

The Arsenal manager's position has been the subject of enormous debate over the past few months—even years. There is a sense that the Arsenal board's willingness to tolerate scraping into the Champions League is a big part of the problem, and that Wenger achieving the minimum requirement will simply lead to more of the putrid stagnation that has festered throughout the season. 

There is, of course, also an FA Cup final on the horizon. However, it would be an absurd state of affairs if one game decided Wenger's fate. The league campaign ultimately provides a more accurate assessment of Arsenal's season. The next couple of weeks may come down to a simple question: fourth and Wenger or fifth and change?

In order to help gain a picture of how Arsenal fans perceive the situation, we spoke to a number of prominent Gunners supporters to find out their point of view on this particular dilemma.

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MAY 10: An Arsenal fan holds up an Arsene Wenger out protest banner during the Premier League match between Southampton and Arsenal at St Mary's Stadium on May 10, 2017 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty
Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

The case for 4th

Making the top four could be hugely valuable to Arsenal. While the economic imperative to qualify for the Champions League has been assuaged by improved commercial and television deals, it plays an important role in maintaining the perception of the Gunners as one of Europe's biggest clubs. Remaining at Europe's top table would ensure a measure of stability as Arsenal enter what is bound to be a turbulent period of transition whether Wenger stays or goes. 

Arsenal fan Elliot Smith (aka Yankee Gunner, host of the Arsenal Vision Podcast) believes change is necessary but that the timing is not quite right:

"The reason I want a manager change is to see the club thrive in the long run and genuinely compete for the league and the Champions League," Smith said. "While I no longer believe Arsene Wenger can deliver those trophies, I do not believe the club have properly prepared for his departure at this time.

"If he were to leave now, without the allure of Champions League football, I find it difficult to believe that the club could attract the manager, director of football, and playing staff all required to prevent a potentially long-term fall from the upper echelons of domestic and European competition. And that's without considering the high-profile player departures that would inevitably ensue.

"Therefore, I think it would be best for Arsene to stay two more years while keeping the club in the Champions League, hopefully providing the opportunity for the Arsenal to finally do some succession planning."

Qualifying for the Champions League would effectively secure the status quo, which would enable Arsenal to put some proper plans in place for Wenger's heir. It's true that Arsenal appear dangerously unprepared for managerial change, with huge work required on the club's infrastructure to give a new manager the best chance to succeed. 

        

Change is needed, whatever the cost

Whatever their feelings on the manager, most Arsenal fans surely want to see their club finish as high up the table as possible. However, faced with this dichotomous choice, we found that a good deal of supporters would be willing to accept missing out on the Champions League if it proved a catalyst for managerial change. 

LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 07: A fan holds a 'Wenger Out' flyer to protest against Arsene Wenger manager / head coach of Arsenal before the Premier League match between Arsenal and Manchester United at Emirates Stadium on May 7, 2017 in London, England. (Photo
Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

Raymond Herlihy of the fan group REDaction would willingly sacrifice a year (or more) of Champions League football if it set Arsenal on a path towards being truly competitive again.

"Give me fifth place and a new manager," Herlihy said. "We have staged mini-recoveries and sneaked into the top four so many times over the past 10 years, but what have we done with it? Bumbled through the group stages, and then folded like Superman on laundry day the first time we meet a good side in the next round. 

"Along with minimal impact on the Champions League, we have also spent all the extra money earned on too many average players, fees and salaries. We have £300 million in the bank, so we won't miss the Champions League cash for one season at least. Change is needed, and all the tools are there for the new man to build a competitive squad again. Thanks, Arsene, but it's gone on far too long. It's time for change." 

It's fair to say some Arsenal fans have fallen a little out of love with the Champions League. Arsenal's persistent failure to threaten the latter stages of the competition has led to some supporters questioning whether it's worth participating—especially given that Leicester City and now Chelsea have been able to mount title challenges without the distraction of European football.

Peter Wood, writer of Arsenal blog Le Grove, has seized upon that trend to suggest he'd be happy to finish as low as sixth—especially if it meant ridding Arsenal of Wenger.

"I would take sixth place, because Europa League isn't good for anyone," said Wood. "Wenger needs to go. His megalomaniac statements in the press were a declaration of war on change, which is absurd considering how poor we've been all year. Creeping into the top four at the last minute and making an FA Cup final the easy way won't disguise our car crash of a year.

"If he signs on, it says Arsenal accept mediocrity, it says we're happy to be an old man's indulgence, and it says we don't value fan opinion. It's also bad for player morale. Things are so broken now that Wenger is never more than two losses aways from fan protest, which leads to a horrendous atmosphere in the ground. Move him on, because if we don't, it'll end in a sacking before Christmas."

Qualifying for the Champions League has become Wenger's trademark over two decades with the club. Some fans feel it's necessary for that pattern to break in order for Arsenal to move forward. 

     

The reality: It's not binary 

Many Arsenal fans recognise that it's not as straightforward a situation as it may seem. Wenger is so entrenched at Arsenal that it may be possible for him to finish fifth and continue his reign. Equally, if he loses the cup final in particularly embarrassing fashion, no league position may be enough to protect him from the fans' growing wrath. Andrew Mangan of Arseblog explained this viewpoint.

"I don't think it's quite that binary," Mangan said. "I want my team to finish as high up the table as they can, and if we have Champions League football next season, I think it will make the necessary work easier, regardless of who is manager. 

"The reality is that Arsenal could finish fifth and win the FA Cup and Wenger could stay. We could lose the cup final, finish fourth and he could stay.

"And in either eventuality, he could leave as well. I would like to see Arsenal with a new manager, and I would love for Wenger to go out on a high with a trophy, but my gut feeling is that as a football club Arsenal are not even remotely prepared for the post-Wenger era." 

Arsenal and Wenger do appear mutually unprepared for life without each other. However, the overriding attitude among the fans is that it is time for change. 

Arsenal football fan Mark Torres carriers his 'Wenger Out' protest placard joining protesters marching on May Day through downtown Los Angeles, California on May 1, 2017. 
Premier league soccer club Arsenal's coach Arsene Wenger has faced opposition from
FREDERIC J. BROWN/Getty Images

Tim Payton, who is a board member of the Arsenal Supporters Trust, says that even a fourth-place finish should not be enough to spare Wenger.

"Ideally I'd say 'Fourth and still change.' However this season ends, it is time for change at Arsenal," Payton said. "Fourth place is the minimum required, it gets you in the Champions League but then what? For seven consecutive years now we have not even reached the level of our Champions League seeding, consistently failing when we reach the round-of-16 knockout stage. We have also barely made a credible title challenge in 12 years. 

"The end of Wenger's contract is the right time to take stock and move forward with both a new manager and an updated football management structure including a director of football hopefully restoring Arsenal to once again being competitive in the Champions League and Premier League."

It seems the Arsenal fans are edging towards a consensus—even if Wenger is able to keep the Gunners in the Champions League, they are only likely to compete to win it once he is gone.

     

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and is following the club from a London base throughout 2016/17.