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The race for Champions League football: Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal fight it out – video

How Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City could face a Champions League play-off

This article is more than 6 years old

If Arsenal draw 1-1 with Everton and Liverpool lose 2-0 to Middlesbrough, both clubs would finish with the same number of points and the same goal difference

How the top six clubs stand at the minute

Victories for Manchester City and Arsenal on Tuesday night confirmed that Manchester United will finish sixth this season – but the three places above them are still up for grabs. With Chelsea confirmed as champions and Tottenham well clear in second place, the final day of the season will determine how Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal will divvy up third place (which brings with it a place in the Champions League group stage), fourth (which earns a spot in the qualifying stages of the Champions League) and fifth (which leads to the dreaded Thursday-Sunday routine of Europa League football). With one fixture remaining for all three clubs, Manchester City are best placed to finish third – they have more points and a better goal difference than both Liverpool and Arsenal – but three different sets of results could lead to play-offs.

The Premier League table as it stands.

A play-off for fourth: Arsenal v Liverpool

If Arsenal draw 1-1 with Everton and Liverpool lose 2-0 to Middlesbrough, the two clubs will finish with 73 points and a goal difference of +31 (with 75 scored and 44 conceded). Similarly, a 2-2 draw at the Emirates and a 3-1 win for Middlesbrough (or a 3-3 draw and 4-2 win at Anfield) would also lead to a play-off. But it’s worth remembering that Middlesbrough haven’t won an away match in the league since August – and that was against Sunderland. In fact, Middlesbrough have only won one match in the Premier League in 2017 (also against Sunderland), so they will have to experience an almighty resurrection between now and Sunday if they are to beat Liverpool by a couple of goals at Anfield. That being said, if they have saved their best performance for the final day of the season, Arsenal fans will be hoping the play-off is scheduled for Friday 26 May.

A play-off for third: Manchester City v Liverpool

If Liverpool lose on Sunday they could end up playing off against Arsenal for fourth, but if they win they could also face a play-off against Manchester City for third. City are currently two points above Liverpool with a superior goal difference, so if they can only draw at Watford and Liverpool win at home to Middlesbrough, there is a chance the clubs could tie for third and face a play-off for the spot in the Champions League group stage. For instance, a 3-3 draw at Vicarage Road and a 3-0 win for Liverpool at Anfield would leave both clubs on 76 points with 78 goals scored and 42 conceded. Again, it’s unlikely. Watford have lost their last five matches against Manchester City and haven’t taken a point off them since 2007, when Stuart Pearce was in the City dugout and Darius Vassell was on the scoresheet.

A play-off for third or fourth: Manchester City v Arsenal

If Watford rip up the history books and thrash Manchester City at Vicarage Road, Arsenal could secure a play-off with a narrow win over Everton at the Emirates. If City lose 4-0 and Arsenal win 1-0, both teams would be tied on 75 points, with 75 goals scored and 43 conceded. Whether they would be playing off for third or fourth place would depend on Liverpool’s result against Middlesbrough (again, it’s extremely improbable, so don’t worry too much about it). Enjoy the final day of the season. We did our best to make it feel exciting.

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