Guardian writers' prediction: 11th (NB: this is not Jacob Steinberg's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 14th
Odds to win the league: 1,000-1
Not many people outside of Nottingham will remember the swashbuckling Forest side from the 2002-03 season, but they provide a pertinent warning for Bolton Wanderers. Eight years ago, Paul Hart nearly led Forest to promotion into the Premier League, only losing 5-4 on aggregate in the semi-final play-offs to Sheffield United. His side was partly based on the lock-pick that doubled up as the left foot of Andy Reid, but also on the goals up front of Marlon Harewood, Darren Huckerby and David Johnson. It would have been difficult to assemble a more potent attack in the Championship.
Between them, the three strikers scored 53 goals in the league (Huckerby was signed on loan from Manchester City in February and got five in 11 games). The following season should have seen Forest make further progress. Instead they plummeted. Huckerby, who had returned to City, instead joined Forest's promotion rivals, Norwich City, and helped them win the league by eight points. In September, Johnson broke his leg and then in October, Harewood was sold to West Ham United. As easily as tearing off a toenail, 53 goals were ripped out of the side, and Forest finished 14th. A year later, they were relegated to League One.
Clearly there is more chance of locating any discernible plot in an episode of Glee than that happening to Bolton this season, but Owen Coyle should be worried about his side's prospects. Last season, he was able to call upon three forwards, Kevin Davies, Johan Elmander and Daniel Sturridge. Then, to paraphrase the Spice Girls, three became one: Galatasaray, able to offer more money, have signed Elmander on a free transfer and Sturridge has returned to Chelsea after impressing on loan at the Reebok Stadium. Sturridge, who scored eight times in 12 matches for Bolton, is the greater loss. A prodigiously skilful presence in attack, he was comfortably Bolton's best player, giving them a different dimension going forward. Maybe Coyle retains hope of convincing Chelsea to let them borrow him again, but there has been little talk of that happening.
Elmander's departure, though frustrating, is arguably less damaging. During his first two seasons in England he was regarded as a standing joke – if he scored against you, you knew you were doing something wrong – and although he performed commendably in the first half of last season, it was never to a level that justified the £8.2m Gary Megson spent on him in 2008. A remarkable solo goal against Wolves last November was perhaps the zenith of his time at Bolton, but that was an exception rather than the norm. In the second half of the season he managed only one goal in the league, although that was partly a consequence of a move into a deeper role following Sturridge's arrival.
The pair contributed 18 goals in the league for Bolton. Davies, who has never been prolific, added another eight, but seven of those came before New Year's Day. Now 34, he is hardly the man to solve a very glaring problem for Coyle. Nor are Rodrigo Moreno or Ivan Klasnic, who is at least a useful option off the bench. In their search for a new striker, Bolton have been linked with David Ngog, a solution which doesn't immediately convince.
Just as alarming as the lack of goals is the manner in which Bolton collapsed in the second half of the season, when they won a paltry five games in the league, none of which were on their travels. There were mitigating circumstances for such a poor run of form, though. Three of the victories came before Stuart Holden injured his knee after a shocking tackle from Manchester United's Jonny Evans on 19 March, after which Bolton were able to beat only West Ham and Arsenal. Aside from those two victories, Bolton were beaten in eight of their last 10 league games and were also demolished 5-0 by Stoke City in their FA Cup semi-final.
Holden's injury was disastrous. The American was a key part of Bolton's midfield, regularly breaking up play in front of his back four and overwhelming opponents with the sort of energy that would put a hyperactive toddler to shame. Without him, though, Bolton lacked zest and their defence was increasingly exposed. Although Bolton kept only five clean sheets last season, their defensive record was not bad – 56 goals conceded, which is perhaps not too surprising when Jussi Jaaskelainen is in goal and Gary Cahill is in the centre of defence. However, Holden will be missing at the start of the season. They need him back as soon as possible.
As if that wasn't bad enough, Bolton have also been rocked by the broken leg suffered by Lee Chung-yong after a nasty and unnecessary challenge from Newport County's Tom Miller in a pre-season friendly last Saturday. Lee, one of the most exciting wingers in the league, will be out for nine months. Bolton will sorely miss him while he recovers; the South Korean is a good crosser, a hard worker and a cool finisher. The injuries mean Coyle has been forced to look for both quantity and quality. In the final game of last season, he was forced to play Elmander and Ricardo Gardner in central midfield against Manchester City, demonstrating the need for a bigger squad. Yet at the same time, no manager wants to buy for the sake of it.
After all, without Holden and Lee, Bolton's midfield suddenly takes on a rather average feel. In the centre, Fabrice Muamba destroys effectively and Mark Davies is a canny player who should continue to develop if he gets more playing time this season. Nigel Reo-Coker has also been signed on a free transfer to add more steel, although he will not pass the ball with anything approaching accuracy. Darren Pratley has also arrived having helped Swansea City win the Championship play-offs. On the left, Martin Petrov is always dangerous, if not always reliable. He started only 18 games last season and his chief rival, Matthew Taylor, has joined West Ham.
Creativity may be in short supply, then, unless Chris Eagles, signed from Burnley, can rise to the challenge. The former Manchester United winger has always had potential but is yet to truly deliver on it. Flashier than Lee but less effective, he has always been capable of eye-catching moments of skill and Bolton need that on a regular basis. Eagles has also been followed to Bolton by Tyrone Mears, one of those non-defending, gung-ho right-backs who are all the rage right now. He won't add much defensively, but is a huge threat going forward.
Bolton will need to hit the ground running as their start to the season makes grim reading. In their first seven games, they host Manchester City, Manchester United, Norwich City and Chelsea, while there are also trips to Arsenal and Liverpool. They go to Queens Park Rangers on the first day, which sounds pleasant enough, but matches away to promoted sides in August rarely are. It is conceivable that they could have no more than three points by the middle of October.
Realistically Bolton should have enough to keep clear of a relegation battle. Since staying up in 2003 they have enjoyed several solid campaigns, and aside from a Sammy Lee-inspired blip in 2008, they have mostly finished in mid-table.
The Reebok remains a difficult place to visit and the idea that Bolton were England's answer to Barcelona last season is far-fetched. Although Coyle rightly has a reputation for producing entertaining teams, he is not stupid and Bolton still got the ball forward quickly and directly. That said, attendances were up and the fans seemed more than happy with what they were watching, so Coyle has certainly had an impact on their style, as highlighted by a lovely six-pass move in December against Blackpool that preceded Mark Davies's goal. Indeed, after a 5-1 shellacking of Newcastle United in November Bolton were the nation's darlings, and for a long time they sat in sixth place, harbouring genuine hopes of qualifying for the Europa League. Then came the slump and an ultimately disappointing 14th place. But Bolton should not forget what was achieved beforehand.
Above all, Coyle must find the right striker. Get that right and there should be no cause for concern. Get it wrong and 14th place will have to do just fine.