There's a hole in the neighbourhood, to paraphrase Elbow, down which Manchester's Champions League hopes have fallen with a mighty crash. One feels that Manchester City will be climbing out and moving on again before long, possibly even strengthened by the experience of group stage failure and ready to be more hard-nosed next time, though there is no way a team who took part in three of the past four European Cup finals can regard this setback as superficial. Manchester United are at the bottom of the hole looking up and the sound that has dominated since their latest below-par performance in Switzerland is that of earth being shovelled on their prospects of revival.
Whether or not the burial party is premature remains to be seen. United have recovered from crushing disappointment before, their manager has confounded those who accused him of staying on too long or losing the plot and in all probability no team in the history of English football have a better record of proving doubters wrong or a better chance of doing so again.
Yet for all sorts of reasons this feels more likely to be a gradual end rather than a fresh beginning. Sir Alex Ferguson is not getting any younger, to state the most obvious fact, and some of the elasticity has already left the grand old man of Old Trafford. After the damaging draw with Benfica in United's final home match it was put to Ferguson by a television journalist that the two Manchester teams at the top of the Premier League seemed to be struggling in Europe. Ferguson's response was to close the press conference with a sneer. "We're not struggling," he said, on the way out.
He may care to revise that opinion in the light of events this past week but it was a discourteous response that didnot do the manager any credit at the time. United had just drawn the second of their three home games against aside who, like Basel, have some useful players but entertain no realistic hope of getting close to a Champions League final. By Ferguson's own, frequently stated rule, 10 points is normally enough to qualify and the way to achieve that is to win your home games. United gained nine points, one fewer than City, and the only side they managed to beat in six matches were the Group C whipping boys, Otelul Galati, a Romanian team that Ferguson, like almost everyone else in this country, had never previously heard of.
Similarly, while Ferguson was entitled to have a pop at Roy Keane's managerial record to shoot down remarks that would have understandably struck him as hurtful and disloyal, the instinctively defensive reaction ignored the fact that this was another television critic with a point. Acquisitions such as Chris Smalling, Ashley Young and Phil Jones have not yet bedded in as Manchester United players. Spectators have taken them on trust mainly because Ferguson talks them up so well, not because of what has so far been seen on the pitch.
United have been accustomed to signing the best players. Now they seem to be signing available players and making the best of it, which is far from the same thing. The last time United made a group stage exit was in 2005, with a midfield that featured Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Cristiano Ronaldo and Alan Smith. Not everyone was able to see what Ferguson saw in the last-named as a midfielder, just as not everyone is presently convinced of Jones's suitability for advanced roles, but what everyone could see against Basel was that Nani and Park Ji-sung were unable to impose themselves, Young has lost his early-season spark and that Keane was probably right in suggesting the veteran Giggs was the best of the bunch.
That is not even to mention the big-money signings who no longer seem to carry the manager's confidence, such as Antonio Valencia, Dimitar Berbatov and Anderson, or to wonder all over again what was going on with Bebé. United may have been unlucky with injury to Tom Cleverley – though his reputation has grown faster in absentia than it ever did on the pitch – but, with even Wayne Rooney subdued since the very start of the season, it is tempting to wonder how much of the side's apparent buoyancy has been due to the contribution of Javier Hernández, the one undoubted bargain of the past couple of years. Yet even the Mexican, for all his predatory sharpness, could not give United an edge against Barcelona at Wembley in May, and in the Premier League he has not been quite at his best in recent weeks either.
Neither have United, who have been mostly muted performers this season. Their record since the 6-1 mauling by City has been particularly underwhelming, either through playing with untypical caution or by seeing their supposed strength in reserve exposed by Crystal Palace in the Carling Cup. Ferguson apologised for that and, though he has no need to apologise for anything else, it is starting to look as if he has been managing a slow decline since United won their last European title, by dint of John Terry's penalty slip, in Moscow in 2008. Although United have been back to the Champions League final twice since then, they have been getting further and further away from the glory and, while there is no shame attached to being unable to get past Barcelona, the same cannot really be said of Basel and Benfica. From being one of the top two teams in Europe, there is now room to doubt whether United would have been strong enough to prevail against revitalised sides such as Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in the later stages or even against Arsenal or Chelsea.
Of course United still have all the experience but even in this country they no longer have all the players. They have been top dogs for a long, long time, and deservedly so, yet when the league table and financial forces suggest they are no longer top dogs in their own city, the world is bound to take notice. Ferguson is not only in a hole; he is in a hole with his hands tied. The time has now arrived for owners who will ride to his rescue; in fact the time may already have passed. It is just as well he is unlikely to have been holding his breath.