“It’s not done, but we are nearly there,” Pep Guardiola said after Manchester City’s last home win of the season. “It’s in our hands to finish third. We are going to play Watford and win the game. [Even if we lose] Arsenal will have to score five or six against Everton to get past us.”
Most of the season’s issues have been settled as the final weekend approaches, there will be no last day relegation escapes and the top and runners-up spots have been known for a while. There is mild interest at Stamford Bridge over whether Chelsea can manage a 30th victory of the season to break the Premier League record of 29 set in each of José Mourinho’s first two seasons at the club, and the race for third and fourth place has resolved itself into a question of whether City and Liverpool can hold their nerve and pick up the necessary points against lower half of the table opponents in Watford and Middlesbrough respectively.
Having to grub around for points on the last day of the season just to finish third or fourth may be a bit of a comedown for Guardiola, who is used to winning titles in Spain and Germany, but the whole point of Premier League football is that it is nowhere near as stratified and predictable as life in La Liga or the Bundesliga. Should City and Liverpool still be in the top four on Sunday night Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp will have done well, their clubs and supporters will be pleased, because everyone knew at the start of the season that six into four would not go and two huge teams would have to miss out on the Champions League.
The challenge for the big clubs this season was not to be among the two losers. City were never going to sack Guardiola for not winning the title in his first season, because while there might be some private disappointment at not matching the pace set by Chelsea and Spurs, the club is simply not in a position to demand top line silverware every single year.
No club in England is, especially now Manchester United have been reduced to the ranks of mere mortals. Chelsea finished 10th last season, Spurs were out of the Champions League by Christmas. Arsenal have not won the title since 2004, Liverpool’s wait has been even longer, and though City were champions as recently as three years ago, they subsequently went backwards to the extent of having to sweat on fourth place last season and entering the Champions League through a play-off round.
So when Guardiola claimed this week that he would have been sacked by Barcelona or Bayern after such an undistinguished season, it was hard to know whether he was bragging, complaining or merely being disingenuous. There is a theory that Premier League owners are too soft in comparison with their continental counterparts, too willing to count the money coming in rather than making the ruthless decisions necessary to get ahead of the rest, yet the situation in Spain and Germany is that a handful of seriously big clubs are a long way ahead of the rest.
To outside eyes it might look easy to keep the Bayern or Barcelona train on the tracks, because until the later stages of the Champions League those sides rarely meet opponents with the same resources and scope of ambition, yet the downside for a coach or manager is that the owners will not listen to excuses. Any hint of a drop in quality or a run of poor results is likely to test the club’s patience, and though Barcelona and Bayern do not get through as many managers as Real Madrid, every employee knows that falling away from the front will not be tolerated.
Guardiola must have realised before he came that English football is set up slightly differently. First because there are at least half a dozen teams of high standing with legitimate Champions League ambitions, and only four places available. Second because it is obvious from even the most cursory examination of their history that Manchester City have never achieved a position of dominance in England. They might be the richest team in the country, they might have grand ambitions and the determination to build something that will last, but they won their first Premier League title only five years ago and that was a hilariously close-run affair on the last day against Queens Park Rangers.
Guardiola knows perfectly well that he is part of a long-term plan to raise City’s profile higher than that, so why he is musing on the possibility of being sacked is a mystery, unless he is simply trying to get his excuses in early in case defeat at Watford and an Arsenal goal bonanza bring about a sting in the tail-end of the season. “Here they gave me a second chance,” he said, protesting a little too much. City were the club that gave Manuel Pellegrini a second chance, after all. This is the league where Arsène Wenger gets chance after chance. If Mourinho is not going to be sacked after one season at Manchester United, why would City feel the need to part with Guardiola for finishing above him?
As long as Champions League football can be secured, Manchester City will be confident the manager they wanted for so long will be able to make further progress next season. The only trouble is that Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and United will be expecting further progress too. Whatever Guardiola does over summer, and there are certain glaring inadequacies he needs to address, City will not start out next season as sure-fire favourites for the title. Most likely, no one will. Guardiola appears at pains to stress that he has not found English football more difficult than in Spain or Germany, and neither will he accept that it is in any way special.
Chelsea won the league through consistency, he points out, and there is nothing revolutionary or remarkable about that. Fair enough. Whether Chelsea have put together anything special under Antonio Conte will be put to the test in Europe next season, the question of whether Guardiola can bring any more consistency to City’s game will be largely answered at home.
Like United, City drew too many games this season to be right at the top of the table, particularly the home games that followed European matches. If Guardiola says the Premier League is no more difficult than La Liga and the Bundesliga, we have to believe him. Few judges are better qualified to comment. But it is different. Two top coaches will fail in their bid for a top-four place this season, and another pair – perhaps the same pair, perhaps two different – will suffer the same fate next time round. Most, if not all, will be given the chance to try again.