UEFA Champions League: Why There Might Be No English Teams In The Semis Again

This article is complimentary to Michael Botsford's article defending the opposing thesis. It all started when, in the comment thread of one of Michael's articles, I said "I wouldn''t be surprised if no English made the semifinals again". Michael then "challenged" me to write a piece backing up that assertion, while he would publish one defending the opposite (that at least one English team is sure to make the semis).

So here it is. It must be noted that I'm not defending that "no English WILL make the semifinals", I'm merely defending that there's a possibility that it might happen. As a matter of fact, that's exactly what happened last season; Chelsea was knocked out by Inter Milan in the first knockout phase, Manchester United was knocked out by Bayern in the quarters and Arsenal lost to Barcelona in the quarters, while Liverpool didn't even make it to the knockout stage.

Last season, against all odds, there was not a single English team in the Champions League semifinals. It was a shock, especially considering that in the three seasons before there had always been three (!) English teams in the semifinals, making the Premier League the strongest league in the world.

Things changed last season, though. Liverpool lost Xabi Alonso and Arbeloa and they couldn't even reach the knockout stages. Manchester United lost Carlos Tevez and Cristiano Ronaldo and couldn't reach their third straight final, losing in the quarterfinals.  Arsenal had a good campaign but they fell at the hands of Barcelona and Lionel Messi. Finally, Chelsea, who was favored to win the competition, lost to Inter Milan in surprising fashion in the first knockout stage.

Many thought it was a fluke, but it was much more than that. With the Premier League top players moving to Spain, English teams are not as strong as they used to be. This summer, Javier Mascherano joined Barcelona while Ricardo Carvalho joined Real Madrid. Cesc will probably be next. All this after Xabi Alonso, Arbeloa and Cristiano Ronaldo had all moved the season before. The millions of Barcelona and Real Madrid have helped them slowly build a monopoly of the best players in the world, thus "crippling" the Premier League top teams.

In this context, a repeat of last season's "fluke" seems very possible. Manchester United and Chelsea had easy groups and, although they won them (like they had last season), they were far from impressive (truth be told, while all their players were healthy, Chelsea was impressive, but after that they struggled to beat Zilina of all teams). Arsenal had arguably the easiest group and they only managed to qualify in the last day. Coincidentally, Tottenham, in the group of death, was the most impressive English team, beating Inter Milan (the defending champions) and winning the group.

The following are reasons why each of the four English sides might fail to reach the semifinals again. I'm aware that I'll probably be proved wrong, as at least one English team should make the semis. In all likelihood, Michael will be proved right. But, then again, if my bold statement is proved right, I'm a genius!

Anyway, here it is:

Arsenal was certainly the unluckiest team in today's draw. Facing Barcelona in the first knockout round basically means that, as of March 8, Arsenal will no longer be in the Champions League.

Granted, there's nothing 100 percent certain in football, but the Gunners' chances are very, very slim. Last season, Arsenal was humbled by Barcelona and a certain Lionel Messi in the quarterfinals by an aggregate score of 6-3. This year, Barcelona is a lot stronger with the addition of David Villa and Iniesta's return to full fitness, and have been steamrolling opponent after opponent. With the three best players in the world currently in their ranks, Barcelona is widely acknowledged as one of the strongest club sides in history, and certainly the strongest since Arrigo Sacchi's AC Milan.

This does not mean, of course, that Barcelona is unbeatable. No team is unbeatable. However, Arsenal is not the sort of team with the weapons to trouble Barcelona. Ever since Guardiola took charge in 2008, there has only been one way to stop Barcelona, employed by every team that upset Barcelona in La Liga and by Inter Milan in last season's Champions League: defend extremely well, with every man behind the ball, and catch Barcelona on fast, deadly counterattacks.

Arsenal, however, is not capable of replicating this style. The Gunners are an attacking team who likes to control possession. The problem is that every team that tried to play an open game against Guardiola's Barcelona got slaughtered (Real Madrid tried it in El Clásico and the results are well known).

Arsenal had their best chance last year, as Barcelona was considerably weaker with Zlatan Ibrahimovic (the Swede is a good player, but he hasn't made 1/10 of the impact at Barcelona that Eto'o and David Villa did) and Iniesta sidelined, and Barcelona's center-back duo out for the second leg. Still, Arsenal couldn't take advantage of that less powerful version of Barcelona and the 6-3 score was actually lucky for the Gunners, especially considering the first half at the Emirates.

This year, I'd say that 95 percent of football fans would put their money on Arsenal being sent home. In fact, according to the bookies, Barcelona will win both at home and at the Emirates.

That said, nothing is certain in football and no team wins before the match starts. However, in all likelihood, Arsenal will not advance any further in the competition, thus failing to reach the semifinals.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Hotspur seems, on paper, like the tightest tie of the first knockout round of the 2010 Champions League.

I'd say it's 50/50, but Milan's experience in Europe (as opposed to Tottenham's inexperience) might prove to be the deciding factor in this tie.

However, there's also reasons to believe that Tottenham has what it takes to bring down the Italian giants: they already beat a team from Milan in the group stages (Inter Milan, the current European Champions) and they have a very strong and complete squad. In their debut in Europe, Tottenham was one of the most exciting teams in the group stages, having become the first team in Champion League history to score at least two goals in every group game. Combine this with Milan's shaky defense (eight goals conceded in the group stage, more than one per match) and Tottenham has reasons to fancy their chances.

AC Milan is a good team, but they're a shadow of the fantastic team that dominated Europe in the middle of the decade.  As if this weren't enough, Milan's star Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been known to perform poorly in the Champions League knockout stages throughout his career.

On paper, it looks like Tottenham has good chances, especially with the return fixture at White Hart Lane. But Milan does too. Despite a rather disappointing performance in the group stages, where they could only beat Auxerre and only advanced by one point, Milan has been on fire in the Italian Serie A and they look as if they might finally be rising to the top again. They certainly won't want to waste this chance to get to the quarterfinals of the CL, where they haven't been since 2007.

All in all, it seems like a very even matchup. Tottenham's explosiveness against Milan's experience promises to be the most engaging encounter of the last 16. Both teams fancy their chances and it's hard to risk a prediction in this one.

That said, even if Tottenham manages to beat Milan, there will be even more powerful opponents waiting for them in the quarterfinals, which means that their chances of reaching the semifinals are very slim. It's obviously not impossible, but would anyone put their money on Tottenham reaching the last four?

Probably only Marseille fans believe they have a chance against Manchester United. The French might be a very good team, but Manchester United is a different beast, with very superior resources and the most successful manager in the world in Sir Alex Ferguson. Plus, they have the second leg at Old Trafford. Anyone other than Manchester United advancing would be a huge upset.

Still, reaching the semifinals will be considerably more difficult for the Red Devils. Last season, they failed to reach that stage after they were beaten by Bayern in a very intense tie. This season, they're doing a good job both in the league and in the Champions League, where they're still undefeated.

But can Manchester United defeat Europe's top sides? If their key players, especially Rooney, are all fit, the answer is most definitely yes. At the top of their game, Manchester United is a very serious threat to any team, even Barcelona. However, Alex Ferguson's squad has some depth issues and, while focused on winning the Premier League, might not be able to beat Europe's top squads (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich...) should they be drawn against them in the quarters. Even at the top of their game, it's obviously no guarantee.

The bookies give Manchester United even odds of reaching the semifinals and I must agree that they have very good chances. It will depend, though, on who they face in the quarters (if they beat Marseille, of course). There are very few teams in Europe who can beat United, but if they happen to face one of them, it will likely be over. This year's squad seems strong enough to win the Premier League, but the Champions League is a whole different story. They will need Wayne Rooney back to his best form in order to stand a chance.

With all their players healthy, Chelsea would be a great bet to reach the final at Wembley. Their lack of depth is, however, even more alarming than Manchester United's.

All it took were some injuries and Chelsea went on a terrible run of form, losing even against the minnows of the Premier League. In such a long season, more injuries are likely to happen, which might hurt Chelsea's chances in this competition.

If all their key players can remain healthy, Chelsea can harbor legitimate ambitions of lifting the trophy in Wembley come May. If they don't, however, Chelsea's European tale might once again be short-lived, just like last season when they lost to Inter Milan in the first knockout round, despite being heavily favored to win.

Winning that elusive Champions League is Chelsea's main objective this season, which only means added pressure for the Blues to deliver. On paper, they'll have no trouble beating Copenhagen, who is widely believed to be the weakest team still in contention. But drawing a stronger team in the quarterfinals might eliminate them if the injury bug sticks around. Most of Chelsea's starters are not getting any younger, which makes injuries all the more likely.

The bookies give Chelsea a 3/5 chance of reaching the semifinals. I'd agree with these odds, but only if Chelsea's key players (Drogba, Lampard, Malouda, Essien, Terry...) can all remain healthy. Chelsea has proven their lack of depth with their recent terrible run of form.

Last season, no English team reached the semifinals and there's a realistic chance that the same might happen again this season. The odds in favor of my prediction aren't great, but they also weren't great last season.

Most people probably won't agree and believe that it is a done deal that at least one English team will be featured in the semifinals. Still, I hope you have enjoyed reading my piece (and Michael's).